2008 Oscars predictions

I didn't have the date for the Oscars filed away in my brain, so I ended up making other plans for this evening. While the little gold men are being handed out, I'll be seeing St. Vincent in concert. I'll be recording the 80th annual Academy Awards on the DVR, so I may get the best of both worlds in this deal: going to a concert and watching the Oscars with all the commercials and boring parts fast forwarded.

Everyone and their mother have made predictions for how this year's awards will go, so I might as well join the pile.

Picture
Will win: No Country for Old Men
If I voted: There Will Be Blood

Honestly, I'll be satisfied with any of the nominees winning except for Juno. I liked the upstart comedy, but I think it's been overrated to a ridiculous degree.

Director
Will win: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
If I voted: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
If I voted: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

He has to have this sewn up, right? If he doesn't, ten bucks says George Clooney says something about drinking Day-Lewis' milkshake.

Actress
Will win: Ellen Page, Juno
If I voted: Laura Linney, The Savages

I'm not buying the Julie Christie frontrunner status, and I don't think the other nominees are formidable enough. Linney should have won a Best Actress Oscar by now and deserves it tonight, but it isn't going to happen.

Supporting Actor
Will win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
If I voted: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

What a loaded category.

Supporting Actress
Will win: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
If I voted: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There

The Academy loves Cate--they must if they nominated her for that lousy Elizabeth sequel--but my gut tells me that Todd Haynes' film may have been a turn-off to enough people to counteract their affection for her. Plus, since I'm working from the assumption that each Picture nominee needs to take home something, this seems like a good place for Michael Clayton to snag a win. Nothing against Ruby Dee, who may very will win, but her tiny, tiny part doesn't merit inclusion here.

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
If I voted: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

An upset for Picture could be in the works if the vote goes the way I'd prefer it.

Animated Feature
Will win: Ratatouille
If I voted: Ratatouille

I liked Persepolis and Surf's Up, but they aren't in the same league as Ratatouille.

Animated Short Film
Will win: I Met the Walrus

It's what Entertainment Weekly is picking.

Art Direction
Will win: Atonement
If I voted: There Will Be Blood

This is the kind of award tailor-made for films like Atonement.

Cinematography
Will win: Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
If I voted: Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood

Congratulations to Roger Deakins for two nominations. Condolences to Roger Deakins for likely having his votes divided.

Costume Design
Will win: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
If I voted: Atonement

Documentary Feature
Will win: Sicko
If I voted: No End in Sight

I'm going with Michael Moore's film to win because this looks like a classic instance of similarly-themed films splitting votes. For what it's worth, I've only seen the two above films from this category, which is why I'd vote that way.

Documentary Short
Will win: Sari's Mother

Like I have any clue...

Film Editing
Will win: No Country for Old Men
If I voted: There Will Be Blood

Should be an indicator of Picture winner.

Foreign Language Film
Will win: The Counterfeiters

Haven't seen any of them.

Live Action Short Film
Will win: The Tonto Woman

Your guess is as good as mine.

Makeup
Will win: La Vie en Rose
If I voted: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

If I voted, I'd be more likely to abstain. I couldn't bring myself to watch 140 minutes about Edith Piaf, and there's no way I'd vote for Norbit.

Original Score
Will win: Atonement
If I voted: Ratatouille

No gripes if my preferred nominee loses to Atonement.

Original Screenplay
Will win: Diablo Cody, Juno
If I voted: Brad Bird; story by Bird, Jim Capobianco, and Jan Pinkava, Ratatouille

Anything but Juno here would likely be the most pleasant surprise of the night.

Original Song
Will win: "Falling Slowly", Once
If I voted: "Falling Slowly", Once

Call this prediction a bit of wishful thinking and practicality. Three Enchanted songs, and no obvious favorite, would seem to cancel out one another.

Sound Editing
Will win: Transformers
If I voted: There Will Be Blood

Sound Mixing
Will win: Transformers
If I voted: The Bourne Ultimatum

The biggest, noisiest films usually win the sound categories, don't they?

Visual Effects
Will win: Transformers
If I voted: Transformers

The film was a mess, but the visual effects work is pretty spectacular.