2011 Oscar Predictions

Since it would be shirking my duties as a film writer not to publish my predictions of the winners at tonight's Academy Awards, I present them now. If you are in a pool with me--for entertainment purposes only, of course--no copying!

Best Picture: The King's Speech

Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Ten years ago I think the winners of the headline prizes held more potential surprises, in part because there wasn't nearly as much tracking and discussion of such stuff online. Now anyone who pays attention can reliably predict at least four of these six awards, if not five. I'm not buying into the backlash at Melissa Leo because of the glam For Your Consideration ads she took out, but that casts a smidgen of doubt on my selection of her. Splitting the oft-linked wins between Director and Picture doesn't feel like as big of a risk as it usually is. It could be what makes or breaks my sheet since these categories deliver more points in the pool I participate in.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech

Best Cinematography: True Grit

Best Film Editing: The Social Network

Best Sound Editing: Inception

Best Sound Mixing: The King's Speech

Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland

Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland

Best Makeup: The Wolfman

Best Visual Effects: Inception

Best Original Score: The King's Speech

Best Original Song: "Coming Home", Country Strong

The guild categories (plus music) are where the pool winners and losers will be separated. While some of these seem clear cut--the screenplay categories are likely locks--it gets trickier after that. Whether it's true or not, my perception is that a "spread the wealth" mentality has been eroding. That's what has me less certain of True Grit in Cinematography. The King's Speech is nominated in both categories I have Alice in Wonderland winning, but my gut tells me that the Oscars will go to the film with the Most Apparent Art Direction and Costume Design.

I'm taking a flier on Best Original Song. The Country Strong nominee is the only one I can claim to know at all, but maybe that's because it's the most recent one of the bunch I've seen. More importantly, while most probably have the impression that animated films have dominated, it's been nine years since a song from an animated film won ("If I Didn't Have You", Monsters, Inc.). That could mean I'm backing the wrong one--just watch the 127 Hours song win--but "Coming Home" seems like a radio- and Grammy-friendly track tailor-made to win awards.

Best Documentary: Inside Job

Best Foreign Language Film: Haevnen (In a Better World)

Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Best Animated Short: The Gruffalo

Best Documentary Short: Strangers No More

Best Live Action Short: Na Wewe

Aside from Animated Film, which is a sure thing, the rest of these come down to shots in the dark. This is especially true of the shorts. Seeing them isn't necessarily helpful. Last year I saw the Animated Shorts and whiffed on the winner. This year I've seen the Live Action Shorts and think God of Love is unquestionably better than all of the others, but I'm going with Na Wewe because it seems "important" and is better than the mediocre other three.

The breakdown of predicted feature film winners:

5 - The King's Speech

3 - The Social Network

2 - Alice in Wonderland

2 - The Fighter

1 - Black Swan

1 - Country Strong

1 - In a Better World

1 - Inception

1 - Inside Job

1 - Toy Story 3

1 - True Grit

1 - The Wolfman

Post-awards update: Looks like I made 17 correct picks out of 24, which was good enough to win the pool I was in. (Since each category was worth various points, I needed the fourth tiebreaker--show length--to win the prize.) If I hadn't split Picture and Director, I would have connected on all six major categories.

The surprising difference--and what put me in an early lead--was Leo's win. The majority picked Steinfeld, likely from Entertainment Weekly inexplicably putting her as the favorite.

So much for "research", though. I blew the Live Action Shorts category, although I was happy to see the best one win. Recent history for Best Original Song winners went out the window with the Randy Newman song netting him a rare victory. (Also, were those about as forgettable of a bunch of songs as you could have?) I read somewhere that the Sound categories had been divided in recent years by Sound Editing favoring a blockbuster type and Sound Mixing going to the Best Picture. The latter didn't hold true this year.

Oscar picks 2010

The long crawl of this Oscar season culminates this evening when the awards are finally handed out. Winners in the major categories seem pretty easy to target, so if you're in an Oscar pool with a semi-informed crowd, it's going to take success in the tech categories and such to win. For what it's worth, here are my picks to win the gold and hopefully net me a fistful of dollars:

Best Picture: Avatar

A movie this financially successful has to win, doesn't it? The feel good story the press wants to write can come in...

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

It isn't common for these two awards to split, but I don't foresee any other outcome.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

These all seem like locks, but I am getting the sense that we will get one surprise here. The Supporting Actress category often seems to produce the unexpected. While the idea of Mo'Nique winning an Oscar fits the bill, she's been the prohibitive favorite since Sundance 2009. I wouldn't be stunned if someone else walked away with the trophy. Still, Mo'Nique gets picked on my pool sheet.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker

Best Animated Feature: Up

Best Documentary Feature: The Cove

Best Foreign Language Film: Un prophète

The "experts" are nearly unanimous in The Cove winning that I'm backing off my gut instinct to go with The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers. Foreign Language Film has been such a crap shoot of late, with lesser seen films beating better known ones. I'm betting the Audiard plays better than the Haneke, although I've seen neither. So watch one of the others to come out on top.

Best Art Direction: Avatar

Best Cinematography: Avatar

Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria

Best Editing: The Hurt Locker

Best Makeup: Star Trek

Best Original Score: Up

Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart

Best Sound Editing: Avatar

Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects: Avatar

If there's this kind of back and forth through these categories, it keeps things interesting for Picture and Director. If Avatar comes up short here, not including the mortal lock that has to be Visual Effects, then it likely indicates a tipping of the scales toward The Hurt Locker.

Best Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Best Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant

Best Live Action Short: Instead of Abracadabra

I've seen all the Animated Shorts and think the Wallace and Gromit short is clearly the best of the bunch. I've seen none of the others. I'm being somewhat the sentimental homer in selecting Dayton filmmakers Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert's entry in Documentary Short, but keep in mind that multiple nominee Reichert has never won.

If everything goes according to my picks, the breakdown looks like this:

5 - Avatar

4 - The Hurt Locker

2 - Crazy Heart

2- Up

1 - The Blind Side

1 - The Cove

1 - Inglourious Basterds

1 - Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

1 - Un prophète

1 - Star Trek

1 - Up in the Air

1 - The Young Victoria

We'll find out soon enough if these awards are as predictable as I've felt they will be.

Post-Oscars addition: 17 of 24 overall, including a pathetic 0 for 3 on the shorts. My instinct was correct that neither of the better known Foreign Language Films might not win, but I didn't have the temerity to check the box for the winner. In other words, no credit.

What I saw and heard of the show amid the party conversation was not exactly riveting television. The Actor and Actress nominee testimonials took far too much time. The biggest surprise was the casualness with which the Best Picture was awarded.

The best news: awards season is over.

2009 Oscars predictions

Fearless predictions for a night of Academy Awards:

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Screenplay: Milk

Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
Best Animated Short Film: La Maison en petits cubes

Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Costume Design: The Duchess
Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Best Documentary Short Subject: The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306

Best Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign-Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
Best Live-Action Short Film: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
Best Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

On guilty pleasures

Wednesday a student was talking to me about anticipating that night's LOST season premiere while also expressing that the show must be a guilty pleasure. I was surprised that such a complex and popular program would get the guilty pleasure tag because the well-reviewed and highly-rated series is not the sort of disreputable entertainment normally associated with the term.

Then again, despite plentiful references to old philosophers and decades of popular culture, LOST'S science fiction and fantasy trappings banish it to dwell in the valley of genre rather than the hilltops of high art. As tends to get ingrained in us at an early age, if something is entertaining and accessible, it must be lightweight and can't be taken seriously. Difficult art that is less pleasing to the senses--stuff that feels like work to consume or is emotionally oppressive--has heft and merit.

In other words, fun is equated to the unserious and pleasures of the flesh and unpleasant means intellectual rigor. Certainly there is some truth in the thinking that pleasant, easy-to-watch fare lacks substance and skill and more demanding works display greater smarts and artistry, but intelligence, enjoyment, and craftsmanship are not (and should not be) mutually exclusive.

Two of 2008's most gratifying, thoughtful, and proficient films were entertainments for the masses in the forms of an animated children's comedy and a comic book action movie. Presumably "low" films like WALL-E and THE DARK KNIGHT may not have the sheen of high art--heavens, what self-respecting "important" movie would have frivolous ancillary products?--but existential explorations of loneliness and the limits of power thrive underneath their slick surfaces.

(While this blog entry is not intended as an indictment of yesterday's Academy Award nominations, that body tends to reinforce attitudes which consider prestige, somberness, and superficial seriousness more worthy of praise. The vacuous awards bait that is THE READER stands as the most egregious example.)

As a mass media consumer and critic I try to remain open to the potential of spotting artistic value in all films (or TV shows, books, music, etc.), whether the object appears to be studio schlock or art-damaged obscurity. So I don't put stock in the concept of guilty pleasures. I like what I like, and I don't feel as though it is necessary (or productive) to apologize for those preferences. Calling something a guilty pleasure only tends to marginalize it more.

Plus, when most people claim to reveal their pop culture guilty pleasures, they don't appear to feel any guilt about liking those things. Maybe there are shades of embarrassment in admitting these likes--the tough guy who enjoys romantic comedies or the literature professor with a weakness for Rob Schneider movies, for example--but guilt doesn't factor in.

Not that I'm going to change the dialogue, but I'd like to rename so-called guilty pleasures with the more precise label of disreputable favorites. All right, so that won't fit as easily on the cover of Entertainment Weekly or roll off the tongue as smoothly, but in my mind "disreputable favorites" describes what is meant when people talk about guilty pleasures. It's the stuff that mass audiences reject, critics pan, and cultural stereotypes proclaim we shouldn't appreciate yet we find ourselves enjoying anyway.

I say it's time to stop feeling guilty and start embracing the disreputable.

2008 Oscars predictions

I didn't have the date for the Oscars filed away in my brain, so I ended up making other plans for this evening. While the little gold men are being handed out, I'll be seeing St. Vincent in concert. I'll be recording the 80th annual Academy Awards on the DVR, so I may get the best of both worlds in this deal: going to a concert and watching the Oscars with all the commercials and boring parts fast forwarded.

Everyone and their mother have made predictions for how this year's awards will go, so I might as well join the pile.

Picture
Will win: No Country for Old Men
If I voted: There Will Be Blood

Honestly, I'll be satisfied with any of the nominees winning except for Juno. I liked the upstart comedy, but I think it's been overrated to a ridiculous degree.

Director
Will win: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
If I voted: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
If I voted: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

He has to have this sewn up, right? If he doesn't, ten bucks says George Clooney says something about drinking Day-Lewis' milkshake.

Actress
Will win: Ellen Page, Juno
If I voted: Laura Linney, The Savages

I'm not buying the Julie Christie frontrunner status, and I don't think the other nominees are formidable enough. Linney should have won a Best Actress Oscar by now and deserves it tonight, but it isn't going to happen.

Supporting Actor
Will win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
If I voted: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

What a loaded category.

Supporting Actress
Will win: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
If I voted: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There

The Academy loves Cate--they must if they nominated her for that lousy Elizabeth sequel--but my gut tells me that Todd Haynes' film may have been a turn-off to enough people to counteract their affection for her. Plus, since I'm working from the assumption that each Picture nominee needs to take home something, this seems like a good place for Michael Clayton to snag a win. Nothing against Ruby Dee, who may very will win, but her tiny, tiny part doesn't merit inclusion here.

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
If I voted: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

An upset for Picture could be in the works if the vote goes the way I'd prefer it.

Animated Feature
Will win: Ratatouille
If I voted: Ratatouille

I liked Persepolis and Surf's Up, but they aren't in the same league as Ratatouille.

Animated Short Film
Will win: I Met the Walrus

It's what Entertainment Weekly is picking.

Art Direction
Will win: Atonement
If I voted: There Will Be Blood

This is the kind of award tailor-made for films like Atonement.

Cinematography
Will win: Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
If I voted: Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood

Congratulations to Roger Deakins for two nominations. Condolences to Roger Deakins for likely having his votes divided.

Costume Design
Will win: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
If I voted: Atonement

Documentary Feature
Will win: Sicko
If I voted: No End in Sight

I'm going with Michael Moore's film to win because this looks like a classic instance of similarly-themed films splitting votes. For what it's worth, I've only seen the two above films from this category, which is why I'd vote that way.

Documentary Short
Will win: Sari's Mother

Like I have any clue...

Film Editing
Will win: No Country for Old Men
If I voted: There Will Be Blood

Should be an indicator of Picture winner.

Foreign Language Film
Will win: The Counterfeiters

Haven't seen any of them.

Live Action Short Film
Will win: The Tonto Woman

Your guess is as good as mine.

Makeup
Will win: La Vie en Rose
If I voted: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

If I voted, I'd be more likely to abstain. I couldn't bring myself to watch 140 minutes about Edith Piaf, and there's no way I'd vote for Norbit.

Original Score
Will win: Atonement
If I voted: Ratatouille

No gripes if my preferred nominee loses to Atonement.

Original Screenplay
Will win: Diablo Cody, Juno
If I voted: Brad Bird; story by Bird, Jim Capobianco, and Jan Pinkava, Ratatouille

Anything but Juno here would likely be the most pleasant surprise of the night.

Original Song
Will win: "Falling Slowly", Once
If I voted: "Falling Slowly", Once

Call this prediction a bit of wishful thinking and practicality. Three Enchanted songs, and no obvious favorite, would seem to cancel out one another.

Sound Editing
Will win: Transformers
If I voted: There Will Be Blood

Sound Mixing
Will win: Transformers
If I voted: The Bourne Ultimatum

The biggest, noisiest films usually win the sound categories, don't they?

Visual Effects
Will win: Transformers
If I voted: Transformers

The film was a mess, but the visual effects work is pretty spectacular.