2011 Oscar Predictions

Since it would be shirking my duties as a film writer not to publish my predictions of the winners at tonight's Academy Awards, I present them now. If you are in a pool with me--for entertainment purposes only, of course--no copying!

Best Picture: The King's Speech

Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Ten years ago I think the winners of the headline prizes held more potential surprises, in part because there wasn't nearly as much tracking and discussion of such stuff online. Now anyone who pays attention can reliably predict at least four of these six awards, if not five. I'm not buying into the backlash at Melissa Leo because of the glam For Your Consideration ads she took out, but that casts a smidgen of doubt on my selection of her. Splitting the oft-linked wins between Director and Picture doesn't feel like as big of a risk as it usually is. It could be what makes or breaks my sheet since these categories deliver more points in the pool I participate in.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech

Best Cinematography: True Grit

Best Film Editing: The Social Network

Best Sound Editing: Inception

Best Sound Mixing: The King's Speech

Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland

Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland

Best Makeup: The Wolfman

Best Visual Effects: Inception

Best Original Score: The King's Speech

Best Original Song: "Coming Home", Country Strong

The guild categories (plus music) are where the pool winners and losers will be separated. While some of these seem clear cut--the screenplay categories are likely locks--it gets trickier after that. Whether it's true or not, my perception is that a "spread the wealth" mentality has been eroding. That's what has me less certain of True Grit in Cinematography. The King's Speech is nominated in both categories I have Alice in Wonderland winning, but my gut tells me that the Oscars will go to the film with the Most Apparent Art Direction and Costume Design.

I'm taking a flier on Best Original Song. The Country Strong nominee is the only one I can claim to know at all, but maybe that's because it's the most recent one of the bunch I've seen. More importantly, while most probably have the impression that animated films have dominated, it's been nine years since a song from an animated film won ("If I Didn't Have You", Monsters, Inc.). That could mean I'm backing the wrong one--just watch the 127 Hours song win--but "Coming Home" seems like a radio- and Grammy-friendly track tailor-made to win awards.

Best Documentary: Inside Job

Best Foreign Language Film: Haevnen (In a Better World)

Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

Best Animated Short: The Gruffalo

Best Documentary Short: Strangers No More

Best Live Action Short: Na Wewe

Aside from Animated Film, which is a sure thing, the rest of these come down to shots in the dark. This is especially true of the shorts. Seeing them isn't necessarily helpful. Last year I saw the Animated Shorts and whiffed on the winner. This year I've seen the Live Action Shorts and think God of Love is unquestionably better than all of the others, but I'm going with Na Wewe because it seems "important" and is better than the mediocre other three.

The breakdown of predicted feature film winners:

5 - The King's Speech

3 - The Social Network

2 - Alice in Wonderland

2 - The Fighter

1 - Black Swan

1 - Country Strong

1 - In a Better World

1 - Inception

1 - Inside Job

1 - Toy Story 3

1 - True Grit

1 - The Wolfman

Post-awards update: Looks like I made 17 correct picks out of 24, which was good enough to win the pool I was in. (Since each category was worth various points, I needed the fourth tiebreaker--show length--to win the prize.) If I hadn't split Picture and Director, I would have connected on all six major categories.

The surprising difference--and what put me in an early lead--was Leo's win. The majority picked Steinfeld, likely from Entertainment Weekly inexplicably putting her as the favorite.

So much for "research", though. I blew the Live Action Shorts category, although I was happy to see the best one win. Recent history for Best Original Song winners went out the window with the Randy Newman song netting him a rare victory. (Also, were those about as forgettable of a bunch of songs as you could have?) I read somewhere that the Sound categories had been divided in recent years by Sound Editing favoring a blockbuster type and Sound Mixing going to the Best Picture. The latter didn't hold true this year.

Oscar picks 2010

The long crawl of this Oscar season culminates this evening when the awards are finally handed out. Winners in the major categories seem pretty easy to target, so if you're in an Oscar pool with a semi-informed crowd, it's going to take success in the tech categories and such to win. For what it's worth, here are my picks to win the gold and hopefully net me a fistful of dollars:

Best Picture: Avatar

A movie this financially successful has to win, doesn't it? The feel good story the press wants to write can come in...

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

It isn't common for these two awards to split, but I don't foresee any other outcome.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

These all seem like locks, but I am getting the sense that we will get one surprise here. The Supporting Actress category often seems to produce the unexpected. While the idea of Mo'Nique winning an Oscar fits the bill, she's been the prohibitive favorite since Sundance 2009. I wouldn't be stunned if someone else walked away with the trophy. Still, Mo'Nique gets picked on my pool sheet.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker

Best Animated Feature: Up

Best Documentary Feature: The Cove

Best Foreign Language Film: Un prophète

The "experts" are nearly unanimous in The Cove winning that I'm backing off my gut instinct to go with The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers. Foreign Language Film has been such a crap shoot of late, with lesser seen films beating better known ones. I'm betting the Audiard plays better than the Haneke, although I've seen neither. So watch one of the others to come out on top.

Best Art Direction: Avatar

Best Cinematography: Avatar

Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria

Best Editing: The Hurt Locker

Best Makeup: Star Trek

Best Original Score: Up

Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart

Best Sound Editing: Avatar

Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects: Avatar

If there's this kind of back and forth through these categories, it keeps things interesting for Picture and Director. If Avatar comes up short here, not including the mortal lock that has to be Visual Effects, then it likely indicates a tipping of the scales toward The Hurt Locker.

Best Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Best Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant

Best Live Action Short: Instead of Abracadabra

I've seen all the Animated Shorts and think the Wallace and Gromit short is clearly the best of the bunch. I've seen none of the others. I'm being somewhat the sentimental homer in selecting Dayton filmmakers Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert's entry in Documentary Short, but keep in mind that multiple nominee Reichert has never won.

If everything goes according to my picks, the breakdown looks like this:

5 - Avatar

4 - The Hurt Locker

2 - Crazy Heart

2- Up

1 - The Blind Side

1 - The Cove

1 - Inglourious Basterds

1 - Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

1 - Un prophète

1 - Star Trek

1 - Up in the Air

1 - The Young Victoria

We'll find out soon enough if these awards are as predictable as I've felt they will be.

Post-Oscars addition: 17 of 24 overall, including a pathetic 0 for 3 on the shorts. My instinct was correct that neither of the better known Foreign Language Films might not win, but I didn't have the temerity to check the box for the winner. In other words, no credit.

What I saw and heard of the show amid the party conversation was not exactly riveting television. The Actor and Actress nominee testimonials took far too much time. The biggest surprise was the casualness with which the Best Picture was awarded.

The best news: awards season is over.