The following predictions have not been extensively researched. Any theories expressed in the decision-making may even be faulty. These are shooting-from-the-hip prognostications, names and films being flipped out from the stream of consciousness. Start the timer...and...go!
Best Picture
-COLD MOUNTAIN
-THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
-LOST IN TRANSLATION
-MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
-MYSTIC RIVER
RINGS, RIVER, and LOST are locks. Take 'em to the bank. I seriously flirted with not putting COLD MOUNTAIN on the list. I would be surprised, but not stunned, if it doesn't make the cut. The film has practically no heat. That said, if it grabs one of the five noms, I expect Miramax will try their damnedest to win.
My perception is that MASTER AND COMMANDER is more respected than SEABISCUIT, which could well win by a nose (rim shot, please). Both seem to be well-liked mass entertainments that never quite became phenomenons at the box office. If all was fair, HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG--too depressing--or IN AMERICA--just never caught on, for whatever reason--would slip past both. I give the edge to IN AMERICA as the dark horse.
Best Director
-Sofia Coppola (LOST IN TRANSLATION)
-Clint Eastwood (MYSTIC RIVER)
-Peter Jackson (THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING)
-Jim Sheridan (IN AMERICA)
-Peter Weir (MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD)
Every year the directors and pictures don't match by one. Sheridan seems like the best bet to be recognized but not have his film get nominated for the top prize. SEABISCUIT'S Gary Ross will be odd man out if SEABISCUIT gets a Picture nom. Since I'm predicting it won't, I'm going for Minghella as the one who gets ignored. Weir's good even if MASTER AND COMMANDER comes up short in Picture. He was nominated for THE TRUMAN SHOW despite that film getting shafted, wasn't he?
Best Actor
-Russell Crowe (MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD)
-Johnny Depp (PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL)
-Ben Kingsley (HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG)
-Bill Murray (LOST IN TRANSLATION)
-Sean Penn (MYSTIC RIVER)
Kingsley, Murray, and Penn are sure things as far as I'm concerned.
Repeat something enough and people will start to believe it. That's how I look at Depp getting a nomination. Sure, he deserves it--what a memorable, whacked out performance--but since when did that matter? This is probably one of the most beloved and talked about performances of the year, and I think all of the buzz pays off here. Plus, if the Academy is going to go for an all-out comedy performance, I see them favoring this over Billy Bob Thornton's hilarious piss take in BAD SANTA.
If MASTER AND COMMANDER is going to get a Best Picture nomination, it follows that Crowe would be honored too. He's very good as Aubrey, a role tailor-made for him, but it sure looks slight compared to the tremendous performances he's racked up over the last several years.
Best Actress
-Patricia Clarkson (THE STATION AGENT)
-Jennifer Connelly (HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG)
-Diane Keaton (SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE)
-Charlize Theron (MONSTER)
-Naomi Watts (21 GRAMS)
Sundance 2003 established the drumbeat that it was Clarkson's year. She won't win--Theron might as well be given the Oscar now--but a nomination will be a nice capper on a career year. People are finally realizing that Connelly is pretty terrific and chooses interesting work. She holds the screen with Kingsley, which is no small feat. It was nice to see Keaton get a part worthy of her talent, even if I'd withhold a nomination on the basis of that endless crying jag that isn't funny at all in SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE.
I had written a nice paragraph explaining why THIRTEEN'S Evan Rachel Wood would be nominated instead of Nicole Kidman, but then I realized I had left Theron out of the list of nominees. Oops. I still think it's an outside possibility. OK, so I'm going out on a limb a little with Wood, but if you want to recognize that hysterical, alarmist film, its talented young star ought to be who gets the attention. Clearly there is some support for the film and for Wood. Witness the Golden Globe nomination. The lovefest for Kidman isn't over yet--DOGVILLE will probably land her here next year--but this year the Academy picks the coltish Wood, who bears a faint resemblance to her.
Except, of course, that I went with Watts over both of them. (Maybe the Academy confuses their Aussie actresses.) Seriously, though, Watts is stunning--take a look at the scene when Penn comes to her home and she vents everything--and should have been nominated and won for MULHOLLAND DRIVE.
Best Supporting Actor
-Sean Astin (THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING)
-Paul Bettany (MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD)
-Benicio Del Toro (21 GRAMS)
-Tim Robbins (MYSTIC RIVER)
-Peter Sarsgaard (SHATTERED GLASS)
Astin and Bettany get nominated due, in no small part, to their films being up for Best Picture. Astin seems to be the one RINGS performer with any buzz. Bettany is very good, and there's a nice storyline with he and his wife--Connelly--being nominated together. Robbins has to be the favorite for his haunted performance. SHATTERED GLASS hasn't really had any momentum, but the nuance and focus Sarsgaard shows in it should stick even if the film hasn't. Alec Baldwin (THE COOLER), Albert Finney (BIG FISH), and Djimon Hounsou (IN AMERICA) could surprise, especially the latter if his film picks up a couple other major nominations.
Best Supporting Actress
-Shohreh Aghdashloo (HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG)
-Hope Davis (AMERICAN SPLENDOR)
-Marcia Gay Harden (MYSTIC RIVER)
-Scarlett Johansson (LOST IN TRANSLATION)
-Renee Zellweger (COLD MOUNTAIN)
Johannson is really a lead, but that's how the politicking of Oscar campaigning goes. (It's even more ludicrous that Keisha Castle-Hughes from WHALE RIDER was being positioned for this category because she is clearly the film's main character.) Zellweger is very popular, and she's probably one of the most memorable aspects of COLD MOUNTAIN. For some, that's not necessarily a positive thing. I liked how she played the hill woman, but the nature of the performance is sure to make this the most divisive of all the nominees.
Aghdashloo isn't riding the coattails of Connelly and Kingsley. Her character and performance are as key to HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG as the leads. It's been a pleasant surprise to see support for her build during awards season. I'm not sure where all the love for Gay Harden in MYSTIC RIVER came from, but considering that she has the most substantial female role in what is sure to be a multiple-nominated film, picking her is a no-brainer. Davis has done solid work for years without much notice. That changes now.
This will be the last time you hear it from me, but Alison Lohman should be nominated for MATCHSTICK MEN. I think it may be the best performance of the year, male or female, lead or supporting. It won't happen, but allow me to stump for her this last time.
Best Original Screenplay
-21 GRAMS
-DIRTY PRETTY THINGS
-IN AMERICA
-LOST IN TRANSLATION
-THE STATION AGENT
Not a whole lot to say here. No need to explain why LOST IN TRANSLATION is here. THE STATION AGENT is the little film with a big heart and loyal supporters. IN AMERICA is the year's feel-good film with a heartwarming autobiographical basis. 21 GRAMS and DIRTY PRETTY THINGS are the flashiest. The former experiments with structure while the latter mixes several genres into something original.
Best Adapted Screenplay
-AMERICAN SPLENDOR
-COLD MOUNTAIN
-THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
-MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
-MYSTIC RIVER
Hmm, four Best Picture nominees here. Three condensed epics and one genre piece turned into Shakespearean tragedy. AMERICAN SPLENDOR is a fascinating distillation of Harvey Pekar's comic books. That it echoes Woody Allen's ANNIE HALL won't hurt it.
How well will I do? We'll find out soon enough.
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